Appendix 2

 Medium Term Financial Plan (MTFP) Update

 

Medium Term Financial Plan

2023/24

2024/25

2025/26

2026/27

 

Approved

Planned

Estimate

Estimate

 

Budget

Budget

Budget

Budget

 

£million

£million

£million

£million

TAXATION & GOVERNMENT FUNDING

 

(501.302)

(538.102)

(546.531)

Council Tax

(337.353)

(14.662)

(9.515)

(13.483)

Adult Social Care Precept

(14.475)

(7.060)

-

-

Business Rates (Inclusive of BR Pooling in 2024/25)

(94.946)

(7.523)

0.601

(1.598)

Social Care Grant

(38.557)

(6.836)

-

-

ASC Market Sustainability and Improvement Grant

(6.055)

(5.257)

-

-

Services Grant

(2.916)

2.438

-

-

Revenue Support Grant

(4.076)

(0.270)

(0.069)

(0.063)

Local Council Tax Support Grant 2021/22

(2.114)

2.114

-

-

Local Tax Income Guarantee

(0.459)

0.459

-

-

New Homes Bonus

(0.351)

(0.203)

0.554

-

TOTAL TAXATION & GOVERNMENT FUNDING

(501.302)

(538.102)

(546.531)

(561.675)

 

 

 

 

 

SERVICE PLAN

 

 

 

 

Service Expenditure

396.461

457.488

515.467

545.334

Inflation

 

 

 

 

Non-pay Inflation

35.545

28.222

15.749

16.010

Allocation of pay award and pensions to service departments

10.972

10.401

-

-

Adult Social Care

 

 

 

 

Better Care Fund - Discharge Funding

(3.053)

(2.035)

5.088

-

Discharge Funding - New Burdens

3.053

2.035

(5.088)

-

Growth & Demography

3.413

3.917

7.491

3.917

Future demand modelling net of attrition (Covid-related)

1.133

(0.365)

-

-

Market Sustainability and Fair Cost of Care (MSFCC) Fund

1.745

-

-

-

MSFCC Fund Pressures

(1.745)

-

-

-

MFSCC - Support for New Burdens (from precept)

(3.149)

-

-

-

Independent Living Fund rolled into Social Care Grant

0.956

-

-

-

Voluntary Sector, Community Hubs, Shielded Group

0.440

-

-

-

ASC Strategy

-

0.330

0.330

-

Children's Services

 

 

 

 

Growth & Demography (G&D)

1.760

0.973

0.808

0.808

Looked After Children Placements Covid-related

(0.872)

(0.347)

(1.758)

-

Covid Grant Funding for Looked After Children Placements

0.077

(0.442)

1.758

-

School Attendance (new duty)

1.500

-

 

-

Home to School Transport

4.021

-

-

-

Family Safeguarding

0.316

(0.194)

(2.075)

(3.533)

Net Operational Pressures incl. Careleavers and Locality

2.285

-

0.475

2.929

Pressures approved via protocol (23/24)

0.282

0.124

-

-

Looked After Children Demand

-

18.340

3.093

4.370

Locality Social Work and MASH

-

0.782

-

-

IT & Digital Systems Development

-

0.044

0.039

0.144

Foster Carers Service

-

1.540

-

-

Additional Staffing Capacity

-

0.645

(0.105)

-

Subject Access Requests Resource

-

0.122

-

-

Reprofile of Public Health Investment

-

(2.420)

0.459

(0.586)

Communities, Environment & Transport

 

 

 

 

Waste PFI Efficiencies

(0.100)

-

-

-

Waste Housing Growth

0.190

0.265

0.355

0.388

Waste PFI Additional Income

 

(3.000)

3.000

-

Support to economic development

(0.055)

-

-

-

Highways Contract Mobilisation

2.313

(2.313)

-

-

Highways Contract Mobilisation (offset by Reserves)

(0.817)

0.817

-

-

Pressures approved via protocol 23/24

0.815

(0.800)

-

-

Local Planning Advice Resourcing

-

0.090

-

(0.080)

Access to Employment and Skills

-

0.200

-

-

Local Nature Recovery Scheme

-

-

0.100

-

Pan Sussex Tourism

-

0.225

-

(0.225)

Highways Core - TUPE Updated Data

-

0.158

-

-

Highways Core - Second Grass Cut

-

0.080

-

-

Business Services

 

 

 

 

Pressures approved via protocol

0.551

(0.078)

-

-

Modernising Back Office Systems (MBOS)

-

0.386

-

-

Licences, including digital and robotics

-

0.403

-

-

Governance Services

 

 

 

 

Pressures approved via protocol, incl. Coroners Services

0.425

0.567

0.148

-

Savings

 

 

 

 

Savings Slippage

(1.347)

-

-

-

Review of BSD Savings Options

0.373

(0.693)

-

-

NET SERVICE EXPENDITURE

457.488

515.467

545.334

569.476

Corporate Expenditure

-

43.814

36.979

46.519

Treasury Management

13.930

(2.850)

4.600

2.500

General Contingency

4.880

0.390

0.040

0.120

Contingency for Potential Pay Award, Recruitment and Retention

11.283

(3.343)

4.870

4.852

Inflation Risk Provision

2.972

3.245

0.017

0.019

Provision for Energy Price Increase

1.300

(1.300)

-

-

Pensions

8.023

(3.149)

-

-

Apprenticeship Levy

0.600

-

-

-

Movement in Reserves

(0.144)

0.144

-

-

Levies & Grants

0.970

0.028

0.013

0.014

TOTAL CORPORATE EXPENDITURE

43.814

36.979

46.519

54.024

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL PLANNED EXPENDITURE

501.302

552.446

591.853

623.500

 

 

 

 

 

CUMULATIVE DEFICIT/(SURPLUS)

-

14.344

45.322

61.825

One-off Use of Financial Management Reserve 2024/25

-

(14.344)

- 

ANNUAL DEFICIT/(SURPLUS)

-

0.000

45.322

16.503